Why Your Exercise Calorie Estimates Are Systematically Too High — NEAT Compensation, Dose-Response, and the Muscle Mass Advantage
Adding up exercise calorie estimates to calculate weekly expenditure overstates the benefit by 30-50% — because NEAT drops on exercise days, appetite partially compensates, and training efficiency improves. Here's the dose-response relationship between volume and actual burn, why MET values have a ±20-30% accuracy ceiling, the long-term resting metabolism boost from added muscle (13-22 kcal/kg/day), and why fasted exercise doesn't reliably burn more fat over 24 hours.